Home Prices Still Rising, But Pace Remains Subdued

Home price appreciation pulled back slightly at the end of last year, according to December data from both FHFA and S&P/Cotality Case-Shiller. The reports reinforce the message that prices continued to appreciate modestly through the end of 2025. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted House Price Index shows home prices up 1.8% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 0.8% quarter-over-quarter . On a monthly basis, prices rose just 0.1% in December , suggesting continued but subdued momentum. On a 3-month basis (which helps smooth out month-to-month volatility while still capturing more granular movement), appreciation has recovered from the early 2025 dip and is back in a normal pre-pandemic range. State- and regional-level data underscore the ongoing divergence. House prices rose in 41 states over the past year, led by North Dakota (+6.4%), Delaware (+6.3%), Illinois (+6.1%), Wisconsin (+5.7%), and Michigan (+5.5%). Florida posted the largest annual decline (-2.7%). Among census divisions, the East North Central region led with a 5.0% annual gain, while the Mountain division recorded a slight decline (-0.2%). The Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index posted a 1.3% year-over-year gain in December, down slightly from 1.4% previously and marking the weakest full-year performance since 2011. After seasonal adjustment, the national index rose 0.4% month-over-month . The 20-City Composite showed a 1.4% annual gain , unchanged from the prior month, and increased 0.5% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis.